Marin Market Update-November 2016

The Marin real estate market saw a relatively strong October, with an overall 2% increase in median home sales price from October 2015. The median home sales price last month was $1,225,000, a slight increase from last October’s $1,197,500. 195 homes were sold in Marin, the majority of which were in Mill Valley, Novato, and San Rafael. San Rafael had 52 homes sold in October, the most in Marin. The luxury markets of Belvedere, Kentfield, and Larkspur each saw an increase in median sale prices, the most significant being Kentfield with a 52% increase. Although one fewer home sold than in 2015, its median sale price of $3,005,000 illustrates a strong market, one where well-appointed properties are in high demand for sure. Larkspur saw an increase of single family homes sold, increasing from 4 in 2015 to 7 this October, a 31% increase in median sales price.


Mill Valley saw a slight decline in number of homes sold, but experienced an increase in its median sales price, increasing by 8% to $1,587,500 last month. This tells us that the area holds its desirability and buyers are willing to compete price-wise for inventory. Important to note is Stinson Beach’s large value of a 146% increase -- note that in 2015, 4 homes were sold, adding in sum to a median sale of $1,215,000. Last month, however, only one home in Stinson Beach was sold for $3,000,000. This difference in price and units sold accounts for the large percent change you’ll notice.

Single Family Homes Sold in Third Quarter 2016 vs Third Quarter 2015

Looking at the graph above, we can see that both values, median home sale price, and number of homes sold, are increasing -- an indication of a successful fall kickoff!

The most expensive home sold in Marin in October was 21 Gilmartin Drive in Tiburon, which sold for $6,500,000 after 122 consecutive days on market.

Trends of Homes Sold in Marin in Varying Price Ranges

Also important to note, mortgage rates rose steadily after the election as the bond market responded to uncertainty. The average 30-year fixed rate rose at least 0.25%. That's a huge short-term rate increase and highly unusual. Expectations about the new administration’s policy initiatives are bearish for the bond market (which causes higher yields and rates). Higher spending, lower taxes, protectionist trade policies, and deregulation could cause a surge in inflation which erodes the value of bonds and increases rates.

The million-dollar question is “how long will we see higher rates”? No one can answer that with any certainty, and rates are still very low by historical standards. While we are presently experiencing a little shell shock in the market, perhaps due to the elections, perhaps the holidays, perhaps interest rates, we do expect the Marin holiday season to bring its share of deals for both buyers and sellers. Historically even the worst news has not kept the Marin market from losing its luster, and we expect that those wanting a solid investment that will grow overtime will look no further than the surrounding Mt. Tamalpais area.

To find your dream home in Marin County or if you are ready to sell and move up or downsize, allow The Costa Group to help. Our expertise in the Marin real estate market and our exceptional customer service are second to none!  Read our reviews and recommendations to learn more about what its like to work with us!